Severe Weather Discussion

North Mississippi
We will have thunderstorms throughout the evening across North Mississippi. Some of the storms to our southwest are reaching severe status and look to cross into Mississippi around the Natchez and Vicksburg areas later tonight. As these storms move along a frontal boundary overnight they could reach severe limits and also produce heavy rainfall. While there is limited CAPE, we have decent storm relative helicity and decent instability so an isolated tornado tonight cannot be ruled out. These southern storms are more intense and a tornado watch remains in effect for the southwestern parts of the state until 3 a.m.
We will have a brief break in the rain Thursday, but as we head into Thursday night another round of thunderstorms will fire up. Some of these storms, mainly north of I-20 could be severe. The severe storm threat for Thursday evening is hail, damaging winds, possibly an isolated tornado and heavy rain.

Southern Mississippi and the Gulf Coast are looking at a severe thunderstorm day as well on Thursday. While the NWS says to be cautious of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds for this region tomorrow, my main concern is the heavy down pours. Low lying areas could expereince flooding and flash flooding with very heavy rain, gusty conditions, and high tides Thursday and Friday. Friday looks bad for pretty much the entire state...

Friday
The National Weather Service has issued a moderate risk for most of Mississippi, but are expected to increase it to a high risk of severe weather by tomorrow.The models are in decent agreement on the timing of the low, but it seems to be slowing down just a bit. The track is still looking like it will be heading south which is usually bad news for Mississippi in situations like this. Greenwood - Jackson - Meridian area seems to have the most favorable conditions for severe weather. However there is plenty of moisture, decent storm relative helicity and CAPE throughout most of the state so tornadoes can't be ruled out. Expect thunderstorms, high winds and hail across the state. We are still a couple of days out, so please check back and I will have updates. You can also track my updates on Twitter.