Thursday, March 26, 2009

Its not over until the Fat Lady Sings!

While there are thunderstorms expected tonight across Mississippi, and some expected to reach severe status along the Gulf Coast, the "Fat Lady" will sing Friday night as wide spread severe storms and large tornadoes are expected to move across the state.Many damaging wind reports and even strong tornado reports from across the southern half of Mississippi last night. The Magee Tornado is officially registered as an EF-3.
Tonight
The biggest threat is for the coastal areas tonight: very strong winds, flooding, severe thunderstorms, and isolated tornadoes. This is due to a stalled frontal boundary with plenty of moisture and uplift.

Tomorrow
The storms to the south could actually work out well for portions of Northern Mississippi. If the coastal storms are strong enough the can cut off the warm moist inflow that will fuel the larger system set to come through late tomorrow. If storms fire up tonight in Central and North Mississippi then then they could either leave behind some boundaries to enhance the severe weather or if there is not enough "recovery time" for the atmosphere it could leave us socked in with stratus clouds and rain that will prevent uplift. That being said, the chances for severe weather across central and north Mississippi tomorrow are very good. The timing for the dangerous storms will unfortunately be late Friday night. With one round coming through around midnight and another headed our way around 4 a.m. The second round seems to be the strongest. The main threat area is the Arkansas and Mississippi Delta then traveling northeast toward the Starkville area.

The NWS GraphicCast shows the set up pretty well

For most of the state, the dynamics are in place for decent shear, moisture, and instability. The only thing we lack is decent CAPE, but 1000 J/kg just might be enough this time of year to fire up some tornadoes. Since this looks to be a night event please be weather aware and prepared. Over a dozen injuries were reported from the Magee EF-3 tornado last night because it was late at night while people were sleeping.

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