Monday, March 30, 2009

Round 2

North Mississippi made it through the severe weather last weekend. With all the convection in Southern Mississippi it cut off the southern flow, and with the intense instability across the state single cells never got organized. This is a good thing, because it could have been bad! Even though we didn't have tornadoes, we did have damaging winds in excess of 60mph in Starkville.

We could be in for round number 2 though. The thunderstorms tomorrow don't look like they will reach severe limits since there will be limited moisture and uplift. But the second round of thunderstorms set to come through on Thursday have all the ingredients to possibly be severe.

Note the negatively tilted trough
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta60hr_850_wnd.gif

Strong PVA
60hr NAM 500 mb Plot


Good UVVs

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/wrfUS_700_vvel_66.gif

And Warm air advection
60hr NAM 850 mb Plot
The ingredients are lining up decently well for severe weather mainly in Eastern Mississippi and Alabama. We will continue to watch this and add updates as we get closer to the event.

We will continue a warming trend here in Starkville through Thursday with highs in the mid to low 70's and lows in the 40's. Once the storms and cold front pass through Thursday we will cool off just a little temporarily, but it is shaping up to be a wonderful weekend in the 70's with sunny skies.

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