Round 2

North Mississippi made it through the severe weather last weekend. With all the convection in Southern Mississippi it cut off the southern flow, and with the intense instability across the state single cells never got organized. This is a good thing, because it could have been bad! Even though we didn't have tornadoes, we did have damaging winds in excess of 60mph in Starkville.

We could be in for round number 2 though. The thunderstorms tomorrow don't look like they will reach severe limits since there will be limited moisture and uplift. But the second round of thunderstorms set to come through on Thursday have all the ingredients to possibly be severe.

Note the negatively tilted trough

Strong PVA

Good UVVs

And Warm air advection

The ingredients are lining up decently well for severe weather mainly in Eastern Mississippi and Alabama. We will continue to watch this and add updates as we get closer to the event.

We will continue a warming trend here in Starkville through Thursday with highs in the mid to low 70's and lows in the 40's. Once the storms and cold front pass through Thursday we will cool off just a little temporarily, but it is shaping up to be a wonderful weekend in the 70's with sunny skies.

ArkLaMiss

The atmosphere is starting to refuel by bringing in moisture from the gulf again and dew points along southern Louisiana are creeping up. Across the ArkLaMiss CAPE is increasing, the storm relative helicity is decent, and the lifted index shows storms will most likely be surface based. These ingredients indicate strong severe storms including violent tornadoes. This weather will most likey propagate northeast ward into Mississippi. The biggest threat is in the ArkLaMiss Delta, but the three states should all be weather aware as a threat for damaging winds, hail, and dangerous lighning is for everyone.

As we storm chase today, we will focus on the Monroe Lousiana area and then from about Jackson, MS to Meridian, MS during the evening. Which brings me to another point. Night tornadoes are particularly dangerous because you can't see them! Stay tuned to your local TV stations and NWS.

To the left are some analysis.

Its not over until the Fat Lady Sings!

While there are thunderstorms expected tonight across Mississippi, and some expected to reach severe status along the Gulf Coast, the "Fat Lady" will sing Friday night as wide spread severe storms and large tornadoes are expected to move across the state.Many damaging wind reports and even strong tornado reports from across the southern half of Mississippi last night. The Magee Tornado is officially registered as an EF-3.
Tonight
The biggest threat is for the coastal areas tonight: very strong winds, flooding, severe thunderstorms, and isolated tornadoes. This is due to a stalled frontal boundary with plenty of moisture and uplift.

Tomorrow
The storms to the south could actually work out well for portions of Northern Mississippi. If the coastal storms are strong enough the can cut off the warm moist inflow that will fuel the larger system set to come through late tomorrow. If storms fire up tonight in Central and North Mississippi then then they could either leave behind some boundaries to enhance the severe weather or if there is not enough "recovery time" for the atmosphere it could leave us socked in with stratus clouds and rain that will prevent uplift. That being said, the chances for severe weather across central and north Mississippi tomorrow are very good. The timing for the dangerous storms will unfortunately be late Friday night. With one round coming through around midnight and another headed our way around 4 a.m. The second round seems to be the strongest. The main threat area is the Arkansas and Mississippi Delta then traveling northeast toward the Starkville area.

The NWS GraphicCast shows the set up pretty well

For most of the state, the dynamics are in place for decent shear, moisture, and instability. The only thing we lack is decent CAPE, but 1000 J/kg just might be enough this time of year to fire up some tornadoes. Since this looks to be a night event please be weather aware and prepared. Over a dozen injuries were reported from the Magee EF-3 tornado last night because it was late at night while people were sleeping.

Severe Weather Discussion

North Mississippi
We will have thunderstorms throughout the evening across North Mississippi. Some of the storms to our southwest are reaching severe status and look to cross into Mississippi around the Natchez and Vicksburg areas later tonight. As these storms move along a frontal boundary overnight they could reach severe limits and also produce heavy rainfall. While there is limited CAPE, we have decent storm relative helicity and decent instability so an isolated tornado tonight cannot be ruled out. These southern storms are more intense and a tornado watch remains in effect for the southwestern parts of the state until 3 a.m.
We will have a brief break in the rain Thursday, but as we head into Thursday night another round of thunderstorms will fire up. Some of these storms, mainly north of I-20 could be severe. The severe storm threat for Thursday evening is hail, damaging winds, possibly an isolated tornado and heavy rain.

Southern Mississippi and the Gulf Coast are looking at a severe thunderstorm day as well on Thursday. While the NWS says to be cautious of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds for this region tomorrow, my main concern is the heavy down pours. Low lying areas could expereince flooding and flash flooding with very heavy rain, gusty conditions, and high tides Thursday and Friday. Friday looks bad for pretty much the entire state...

Friday
The National Weather Service has issued a moderate risk for most of Mississippi, but are expected to increase it to a high risk of severe weather by tomorrow.The models are in decent agreement on the timing of the low, but it seems to be slowing down just a bit. The track is still looking like it will be heading south which is usually bad news for Mississippi in situations like this. Greenwood - Jackson - Meridian area seems to have the most favorable conditions for severe weather. However there is plenty of moisture, decent storm relative helicity and CAPE throughout most of the state so tornadoes can't be ruled out. Expect thunderstorms, high winds and hail across the state. We are still a couple of days out, so please check back and I will have updates. You can also track my updates on Twitter.