Lets Try This Again

Okay, so I've started a new life as a "grown up" in Myrtle Beach working at the NBC station in town. I'm going to be here for a while and a blog about the local weather and my new life on the beach seems necessary. So take the journy with me and lets see where my beach bum weather weenie life style leads me.

Round 2

North Mississippi made it through the severe weather last weekend. With all the convection in Southern Mississippi it cut off the southern flow, and with the intense instability across the state single cells never got organized. This is a good thing, because it could have been bad! Even though we didn't have tornadoes, we did have damaging winds in excess of 60mph in Starkville.

We could be in for round number 2 though. The thunderstorms tomorrow don't look like they will reach severe limits since there will be limited moisture and uplift. But the second round of thunderstorms set to come through on Thursday have all the ingredients to possibly be severe.

Note the negatively tilted trough

Strong PVA

Good UVVs

And Warm air advection

The ingredients are lining up decently well for severe weather mainly in Eastern Mississippi and Alabama. We will continue to watch this and add updates as we get closer to the event.

We will continue a warming trend here in Starkville through Thursday with highs in the mid to low 70's and lows in the 40's. Once the storms and cold front pass through Thursday we will cool off just a little temporarily, but it is shaping up to be a wonderful weekend in the 70's with sunny skies.

ArkLaMiss

The atmosphere is starting to refuel by bringing in moisture from the gulf again and dew points along southern Louisiana are creeping up. Across the ArkLaMiss CAPE is increasing, the storm relative helicity is decent, and the lifted index shows storms will most likely be surface based. These ingredients indicate strong severe storms including violent tornadoes. This weather will most likey propagate northeast ward into Mississippi. The biggest threat is in the ArkLaMiss Delta, but the three states should all be weather aware as a threat for damaging winds, hail, and dangerous lighning is for everyone.

As we storm chase today, we will focus on the Monroe Lousiana area and then from about Jackson, MS to Meridian, MS during the evening. Which brings me to another point. Night tornadoes are particularly dangerous because you can't see them! Stay tuned to your local TV stations and NWS.

To the left are some analysis.

Its not over until the Fat Lady Sings!

While there are thunderstorms expected tonight across Mississippi, and some expected to reach severe status along the Gulf Coast, the "Fat Lady" will sing Friday night as wide spread severe storms and large tornadoes are expected to move across the state.Many damaging wind reports and even strong tornado reports from across the southern half of Mississippi last night. The Magee Tornado is officially registered as an EF-3.
Tonight
The biggest threat is for the coastal areas tonight: very strong winds, flooding, severe thunderstorms, and isolated tornadoes. This is due to a stalled frontal boundary with plenty of moisture and uplift.

Tomorrow
The storms to the south could actually work out well for portions of Northern Mississippi. If the coastal storms are strong enough the can cut off the warm moist inflow that will fuel the larger system set to come through late tomorrow. If storms fire up tonight in Central and North Mississippi then then they could either leave behind some boundaries to enhance the severe weather or if there is not enough "recovery time" for the atmosphere it could leave us socked in with stratus clouds and rain that will prevent uplift. That being said, the chances for severe weather across central and north Mississippi tomorrow are very good. The timing for the dangerous storms will unfortunately be late Friday night. With one round coming through around midnight and another headed our way around 4 a.m. The second round seems to be the strongest. The main threat area is the Arkansas and Mississippi Delta then traveling northeast toward the Starkville area.

The NWS GraphicCast shows the set up pretty well

For most of the state, the dynamics are in place for decent shear, moisture, and instability. The only thing we lack is decent CAPE, but 1000 J/kg just might be enough this time of year to fire up some tornadoes. Since this looks to be a night event please be weather aware and prepared. Over a dozen injuries were reported from the Magee EF-3 tornado last night because it was late at night while people were sleeping.

Severe Weather Discussion

North Mississippi
We will have thunderstorms throughout the evening across North Mississippi. Some of the storms to our southwest are reaching severe status and look to cross into Mississippi around the Natchez and Vicksburg areas later tonight. As these storms move along a frontal boundary overnight they could reach severe limits and also produce heavy rainfall. While there is limited CAPE, we have decent storm relative helicity and decent instability so an isolated tornado tonight cannot be ruled out. These southern storms are more intense and a tornado watch remains in effect for the southwestern parts of the state until 3 a.m.
We will have a brief break in the rain Thursday, but as we head into Thursday night another round of thunderstorms will fire up. Some of these storms, mainly north of I-20 could be severe. The severe storm threat for Thursday evening is hail, damaging winds, possibly an isolated tornado and heavy rain.

Southern Mississippi and the Gulf Coast are looking at a severe thunderstorm day as well on Thursday. While the NWS says to be cautious of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds for this region tomorrow, my main concern is the heavy down pours. Low lying areas could expereince flooding and flash flooding with very heavy rain, gusty conditions, and high tides Thursday and Friday. Friday looks bad for pretty much the entire state...

Friday
The National Weather Service has issued a moderate risk for most of Mississippi, but are expected to increase it to a high risk of severe weather by tomorrow.The models are in decent agreement on the timing of the low, but it seems to be slowing down just a bit. The track is still looking like it will be heading south which is usually bad news for Mississippi in situations like this. Greenwood - Jackson - Meridian area seems to have the most favorable conditions for severe weather. However there is plenty of moisture, decent storm relative helicity and CAPE throughout most of the state so tornadoes can't be ruled out. Expect thunderstorms, high winds and hail across the state. We are still a couple of days out, so please check back and I will have updates. You can also track my updates on Twitter.

6 More Weeks of Winter?!

Our oldest meteorologist (Phil) saw his shadow today and declared 6 more weeks of winter! I think he may be slipping in his old age, or maybe he knows something I don't! I do know that we will have at least 48 more hours of winter. Our temperatures are going to drop throughout tomorrow afternoon and leave us with a very chilly Wednesday.

A front will make its way to North Mississippi by Tuesday evening, it won't bring any rain, but it will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air. Expect highs in the upper teens Thursday morning. Relief will be fast though as we start a warming trend Thursday that will get us to the mid 60's by our weekend. See the video forecast for more details.

Sorry for the down time

Hey guys, I'll be back in full forecast force by the beginning of the week. I took a little break over the holidays, but I'm so happy to be back at school and in the studio!

Frozen Precip?

Many areas in Mississippi had frozen precipitation on Sunday. The most puzzling type of precip was Grapple. Grapple occurs when there is very cold air aloft and warmer air at the surface. The warm air creates uplift and convection. The cold air aloft lets snowflakes form in the clouds. The convection makes the falling flakes go back up into the clouds (similar to hail) and the super-cooled water forms ice on the snowflakes. The ice covered snowflakes can now survive the above freezing temperatures at the surface...pretty cool huh?

Some areas are still getting very light snow flurries with no accumulations. All precipitation should clear out tonight and clouds will clear. This will allow our temperatures to fall to 27 tonight (Monday night). Tomorrow our gray days will be over, but even with sunny skies we will only make it up to the low 50's. Our next chance of rain will be Wednesday.

I'll have more details in my video forecast that will be uploaded tomorrow.

Thanksgiving forecast

Pascagoula, MS

High pressure will continue to keep you cool and dry through Wednesday morning and early afternoon. By Wednesday night the area of high pressure moves east and the clockwise flow around the high will start to bring in moisture from the gulf. Clouds will start to increase Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night will be considerably warmer than Tuesday night because of the blanket of clouds and some warm air moving in ahead of a weak front. Thanksgiving looks unseasonably warm as we continue to heat up from the warm moist gulf air flowing in. By Thursday night there is enough moisture in the area to spark some showers, but expect the best chance of rain on Friday. The rain should clear by the early morning hours on Saturday.

Burrr!

    

Starkville woke up to the coldest temperatures of the year this morning! From the looks of it, cold weather is here to stay too. To make our chilly temps even colder a cold front makes its way to us Thursday afternoon giving us another shot of cold dry air. We don't have enough moisture to give us any rain with this front but our over night will definitely let you know it came through. Sunny to mostly sunny skies until Monday when another front moves through. We will get rain with this front, and maybe even thunderstorms. Everything should clear out by Monday night and give way to seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies. 

Cloudy days are almost over

We really haven't gotten as much rain as expected out of this series of systems. Rain to the south has cut off the moisture from getting to us. We have had a few scattered sprinkles across the Golden Triangle but not much more than three quarters of an inch all-in-all. We have one more chance for rain tomorrow (about a 30% chance of scattered showers) then we are in the clear...and cold! Lows dipping down the 32 early Sunday morning. The weekend and beginning of your work week will be sunny and cooler.

Check back soon for the video forecast and a look at the week ahead.    

Rain!!

Clouds are increasing tonight and you can look for a soggy Veteran's Day. The rain moves in and stays for a while...till Saturday morning  as a matter of fact. Once the cold front gets out of the way on Saturday look for cooler than normal temps and the probability of a freeze Sunday night/Monday morning.  

Active Weather

The rain and clouds were slow to move out of the Golden Triangle region this morning. We got the cooler temps from the front early this morning, but the dry air was a little slow to follow. 

Some severe weather was expected out of this system, but once the front made its way to Arkansas it weakened a little and we really didn't see much instability. In face, Starkville got less than half an inch of rain...The rain sounded more impressive last night as I was falling asleep. 

Tonight and tomorrow will remain clear as high pressure moves in. This area of high pressure quickly moves to the east and Starkville will start to see a more southerly flow by Monday morning. This flow from the south will bring in moisture from the Gulf and set us up for some rain late Monday night and Tuesday.By Wednesday, skies start to clear, but again, it won't last long. ANOTHER front is expected to head this way by next Friday. 

The temperature roller-coaster up and down as this series of fronts heads through. If one of these systems decides to stall out, we may see rain most of the workweek and next weekend. 

While severe weather is not expected right now, the Southeast is in its secondary severe weather season. I'll have more on this later.